A state-space model was established for the short-term traffic flow prediction problem under complex road conditions, which is based on macroscopic traffic flow forecasting. In order to solve the problem of parameter optimization on the dynamic traffic forecast model, a method to improve the performance of Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) with orthogonal adaptive Differential Evolution (DE) was proposed. The orthogonal method maximized the diversity of the initial population in DE algorithm. The crossover operator in DE was optimized by the orthogonal method and the technology of quantification to balance the exploitation and exploration, which was more beneficial to find the model parameters of UKF. The experimental results show that, with respect to use random distribution to initialize the parameters, or set model parameters based on the experience, the use of orthogonal design method for initialization strategy, mutation operator and adaptive control strategy of parameters in differential evolution algorithm can effectively save computing resources, improve forecasting performance and accuracy, and provide better robustness.

A new autonomous vehicle navigation model was proposed based on multi-sensor system for vehicle navigation and Global Positioning System (GPS) under complex road conditions. And the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) was used to overcome some security issues due to the sudden error produced by the Kalman filters with extensions, which belonged to Sigma point based sensor fusion algorithm. It is more suitable than the Kalman filters with extensions that the UKF can calculate the evaluation satisfied the requirement in vehicle navigation. Comparison experiments with the Kalman filter based on polynomial expansion were given in terms of estimation accuracy and computational speed. The experimental results show that the Sigma-point Kalman filter is a reliable and computationally efficient approach to state estimation-based control. Moreover, it is faster to evaluate the motion state of the vehicle according to the current direction situations and the feedback information of vehicle sensor, and can calculate the control input of vehicle adaptively in real time.